There is a very fine line between winning and losing on the PGA Tour.
Xander Schauffele played well enough to win for 72 holes at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, but ultimately walked away from Kapalua with as much hardware as Martin Trainer.
Of course, win tallies are not the only way to measure success.
In terms of expected wins
, which measures the likelihood, or expectation, of a given strokes-gained performance resulting in a win, Schauffele’s performance last week was equivalent to that of the eventual winner, Justin Thomas.
We estimate that Schauffele’s performance, as well as Thomas’ and Reed’s, would win an average PGA Tour event (this is where the ‘true’ part in ‘true expected wins’ comes from) about 18% of the time.
Looking at the 2020 season so far
, Xander actually leads the PGA Tour with 1.1 true expected wins; Justin Thomas has 0.72.