Compared to PGA Tour courses, golfers' course history at courses on the European Tour appear
(from our fairly basic analysis) to be more predictive. That is,
given the same number of rounds played and the same over (or under)-performance relative to baseline, we would adjust
our predictions at a European Tour course more than at a PGA Tour course. For example, at European Tour courses we increase
our baseline skill predictions by 0.07 strokes if a golfer has outperformed their baseline by 1 stroke per round in a 10-round sample
at that course;
the analogous term at a PGA Tour course is just 0.04 strokes. Also, because we only currently have data on European Tour courses dating
back to 2010, there isn't enough data to accurately assess whether course history is more, or less, predictive
at specific courses. (On the PGA course history tool, we do allow for course-specific differences in the predictive power of
golfers' course history).
View the PGA Tour course history tool
for an explanation on the specifics of this plot.
Generally speaking, a golfer's 'course history' is some indicator of how they have performed historically
at a given course. We analyze a golfer's course history by looking at their average strokes-gained
relative to expectation, or baseline, at the relevant course, as well as how many rounds this average is comprised of.
In other words, golfers with good course history are those
who have played better at the relevant course than they have elsewhere. (A golfer's "expectation" at any point in time is what our
model estimates their overall skill level to be; this is estimated using data from all tournaments and without factoring
in any course-player interactions.)
This is a limited version of this table. To access the
full version which includes golfer skill estimates after adjusting for their course history,
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