• Course History ToolEURO
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The Importance of Course History
Average course history adjustment at European Tour courses
Compared to PGA Tour courses, golfers' course history at courses on the European Tour appear (from our fairly basic analysis) to be more predictive. That is, given the same number of rounds played and the same over (or under)-performance relative to baseline, we would adjust our predictions at a European Tour course more than at a PGA Tour course. For example, at European Tour courses we increase our baseline skill predictions by 0.07 strokes if a golfer has outperformed their baseline by 1 stroke per round in a 10-round sample at that course; the analogous term at a PGA Tour course is just 0.04 strokes. Also, because we only currently have data on European Tour courses dating back to 2010, there isn't enough data to accurately assess whether course history is more, or less, predictive at specific courses. (On the PGA course history tool, we do allow for course-specific differences in the predictive power of golfers' course history). View the PGA Tour course history tool for an explanation on the specifics of this plot.
Generally speaking, a golfer's 'course history' is some indicator of how they have performed historically at a given course. We analyze a golfer's course history by looking at their average strokes-gained relative to expectation, or baseline, at the relevant course, as well as how many rounds this average is comprised of. In other words, golfers with good course history are those who have played better at the relevant course than they have elsewhere. (A golfer's "expectation" at any point in time is what our model estimates their overall skill level to be; this is estimated using data from all tournaments and without factoring in any course-player interactions.)
This is a limited version of this table. To access the full version which includes golfer skill estimates after adjusting for their course history, you must become a Scratch member. Sign up here.

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